You are the average Joe or Jill, working in the average office. You want to make it to the top and will do anything to get there, no matter how sneaky, underhanded; deceitful that may be (even go as far as to actually WORK HARD if need be, but only as last resort). Your ultimate goal is to get promoted and make it to "The Top". As the average Jo or Jill, you must complete certain work related tasks to progress in the game.The "Equipment" you have to achieve your goal includes: a calculator, mobile phone, tools & clothes. To help sabotage work colleagues you will also have nasty stuff like itching powder & stinky old prawns to hide in someone else's desk as part of your arsenal.
We learnt more about Monolines on Friday:
Initially set up to wrap up debt offerings (bonds) from Municipalities (cities, counties) in the US. Most municipalities don't have AAA or any sort of A type credit rating, so the idea was that Monolines would "wrap" (ie, guarantee) the bond thus giving the bond a AAA credit rating. The monoline got a fee, and because the bond was AAA the Municipality would be able to get away with offering a lower coupon rate so even after the fee they were ahead.
This was a great business, good for Municipalities, good for rate payers, and good for the Monolines. Despite the low credit rating most Municipalities would never default so for the most part it was money for jam as far as the monolines were concerned; which is why Warren Buffet is now circling the monolines to see what he can pick up cheap. Then of course the Monolines got greedy.
They started to wrap other things including CDOs, giving them a AAA rating.
As we know a lot of these CDOs consisted of sub-prime mortgages. The mortgages started to default and caused problems for the CDOs, this led to problems for the monolines as they had guaranteed the CDOs - cash outflow. And the cards came down.
What I didn't know is that it is not over yet by a long shot. Now we are into the ripple effects. Because of the problems caused by the CDOs, most monolines have been downgraded from their AAA rating; the two largest in the US are barely hanging on to theirs. Now think about that for a minute. If a monoline doesn't have a AAA rating then anything it wraps will now have to offer a higher interest rate than before. So now municipalities in the US will have to pay more in interest on their debt issues, high rates for taxpayers etc. Last week NY and another city did a debt release the coupon rate was 20%!!!! Now this wasn't just from the decline in the monolines rating, there is also a drying up of liquidity in the US, people are scared to loan money, the monolines worried about their ratings are much more conservative in what they will wrap. What all these changes will lead to nobody really knows.
The lecturer's opinion was that the recent announced investigate by the SEC in the US into CDOs, monolines, rating agency's, and investment banks will do nothing.
Another topic that was raised on Friday was the state of the US economy. While it looks like shit, the Govt and Treasury have been hard at work and some people feel that the US is now better prepared for any shock waves to come, on the other hand Europe seems oblivious to the whole thing. A number of economists think that if there is a recession it will be triggered by Europe and not the US.
The current outlook on commodities are good. China is still roaring ahead. However, nobody knows really how decoupled Asia is from the US. If there was an US recession how badly would it affect China? If the commodities market stalls because China pulls it's head in, then Oz is in trouble and our property market will also collapse. His advice was basically don't invest in anything with the aim of capital gains for at least six months until hopefully the picture is clearer.